Just about to start. I'm really fascinated this year. Of course, my LSU Tigers have a couple of guys at the top in QB Jayden Daniels (almost as much a lock to go #2 as Caleb Williams at #1) and WR Malik Nabers.The first 3 picks are basically certain to be QBs. Then it's going to get VERY interesting b/c there are multiple teams desperate for a QB but a little uncertain how highly valued the next set of QBs are. Arizona at 4 almost certainly doesn't move down and just takes WR Marvin Harrison Jr, in part b/c they already have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. So the Chargers at #5... could someone make a big trade up with them or does Harbaugh stick there and take a "big ugly" OL?
It was a crazy tilt to offense. Blew away the record for most consecutive offensive players picked as you said, and also 23 of 32 were offense, breaking that record by 4. (19 O players had been taken 3 times.) SIX of the first 12 picks were QBs. I thought some desperation might come into play there but holy cow, that exceeded my thoughts on what was likely. As a Saints fan I was tickled to see the Falcons take a QB at #8 right after giving Kirk Cousins a huge deal. Maybe that'll end up working but my guess is that between not getting more immediate help somewhere for Cousins to "win now", or with Penix's injury history, this ends up being a "what the F@#$ were you thinking?!" pick for them. Which is how most seem to view it in the moment. Saints & Bengals, the 2 teams I follow most now, both took OTs and both seem like solid picks.
Cousins has $100M guaranteed and potentially $180M over 4 years. With Penix at #8, the rookie scale slots him at about $22.9M. That's a pretty substantial amount at the position, not far off what teams are paying Burrow and Herbert who just reset the elite QB market. This will probably get fully judged in 2-3 years unless both completely flame out before then. To some extent I get the logic that they don't expect to have a pick this high in a while so want to shore up the future of the primary position, but it's just really hard to both win now and prepare for the future in the NFL because of the various structural limits.
At least with the rookie was scale a team doesn't get screwed by drafting a "bust" player in the Top 10 like it was 20 years ago. Sam Braford is still one of the highest earning NFL players and his production was pedestrian, at best.
Ha... as an LSU fan I'm all too aware of how big a deal that is. Our guy Jamarcus Russell is one of the all time busts who helped spur that change after flaming out on his $61M rookie deal in 2007. There's an infamous story about the Raiders coaches giving him a blank DVD that he was told had game plan info etc on it. When asked about it he reported having watched it all, which of course was impossible and confirmed the coaches' suspicions about him. What a waste of incredible physical talent.
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