Super Bowl LVIII 49ers vs Chiefs

[JoeRod]

First to paydirt is a lot of fun. Each guest puts in two 5.00 bills and then draws a name. If their player scores the first TD they get half the money and then we do the same for the second half. It’s awesome seeing everyone so involved and excited hoping their guy gets in first. What was even funnier was watching one of our 7 year old twins take her wallet out and pick out two fives and then draw a name. She held her ticket the entire game. Great times….

[tripplej]

Nickelodeon channel had the super bowl on and they animated it. From all indications, it was a hit.

You have to go to youtube to see it,

[bmoney]

So taking the ball second in OT has turned into the  equivalent of being the home team in baseball. Huge advantage.

[AVSCraig]

Pictures from our party. We weren’t rooting for any particular team to win. We have an annual party each year:

Wow - you go a bit nuts for Super Bowl, eh? 

[Paul Heroy]

So taking the ball second in OT has turned into the  equivalent of being the home team in baseball. Huge advantage.

It used to be an absolute no brainer to always take the ball first in OT. I'm glad they have changed it so that there is more of a strategic decision there and it could go either way depending on circumstances. Shanahan had 2 legit reasons for wanting the ball first.

[David Vaughn]

Thankfully, he fired his horrendous defensive coordinator today. That clown blew the game in OT....he had KC at 2nd and 14 and played a soft zone versus putting the pressure on KC to convert in tight windows. Glad Wilks is on the unemployment line today. I hope they hire Mike Vrabel as their next defensive coordinator, or better yet, his former boss, Bill Belichick (a guy can dream, can't he?)

[Paul Heroy]

Uh... the D held the Chiefs to 19 in regulation despite losing a key starter and the O having key failures. Was he responsible for the offense getting close in OT but failing to get what ended up being a needed TD? Was he responsible for the missed PAT, or the fumble, or the muffed punt return? 

Obviously I don't follow closely but SF had the #3 defense for 2023 in the advanced stats ranking. If they can pull Vrabel, that's probably for just 1 year. So I'm not sure I get the move. But I guess the urge to hold someone accountable after Shanahan's 3rd blown double digit lead in the SB can't fall on the head guy yet.

[David Vaughn]

Uh... the D held the Chiefs to 19 in regulation despite losing a key starter and the O having key failures. Was he responsible for the offense getting close in OT but failing to get what ended up being a needed TD? Was he responsible for the missed PAT, or the fumble, or the muffed punt return?

Obviously I don't follow closely but SF had the #3 defense for 2023 in the advanced stats ranking. If they can pull Vrabel, that's probably for just 1 year. So I'm not sure I get the move. But I guess the urge to hold someone accountable after Shanahan's 3rd blown double digit lead in the SB can't fall on the head guy yet.

He wasn't fired because he was a bad coach or because they lost the Super Bowl. He was fired because his game calls didn't synch with the defensive skills of the players on hand. The front 4 were not in synch with the back half of the defense for much of the year and the defense fell from #1 to #3 with essentially the same, if not better, players on the defense (Hargrave was added to the DL this year along with Young and Gregory), but they were a worse team that the previous 2 years. This was particularly apparent in stopping the rush. They absolutely sucked the last half of the year and went from Top 5 to Bottom 7 in one year--that's not good. 

Shanahan definitely deserves criticism for how he handled the 4th quarter and OT. He coached afraid instead of seizing the opportunity. On 3rd and 5 with 2 minutes to go in the game, why not play for two downs and rush the ball on third down--if you don't make it, you can still kick the FG (if that's your backup plan), but by rushing you accomplish multiple things. First, you force KC to use one of its two remaining timeouts. If you get a positive play of 2-3 yards, it makes going for it on 4th down that much easier (which at 4th and less than 3 you freaking go for it and if you don't make it, you have justification to say "we were going for the win and didn't want to give Mahomes a chance to beat us). Not many would be critical of that choice (I know I wouldn't). Even if you decide not to run the ball on third down, call a freaking screen. On every third down and less than 7 yards in the second half, KC brought a blitz in the second half--by not calling a screen pass, you play right into their hands. This is just Kyle outthinking himself. 

My final thought--Kyle didn't lose the Super Bowl for Atlanta. That's on Dan Quinn, who was in charge of the defense. He had a 25 point lead with one quarter to go and it's inexcusable for the defense to give up so many points. I know Kyle gets the blame because of the way he handled the last series of the game, but Quinn's defense didn't do him any favors. 

[Paul Heroy]

Thanks David, good info and points. 

Football's always been a team game, and having the offense, defense and special teams play in sync in some ways matters. One of my football message board friends has a longstanding antipathy towards full out "spread" type offenses because of their typical impact on defenses, and we've seen that play out with Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma then USC. I saw Shanahan's comments later about Wilks not being a good fit, and as the HC that's certainly something he's got more detailed thoughts on including what you mentioned, and within his charge to set the direction. 

Hope y'all get back, and I hope it's vs the Bengals this time - though I wouldn't be rooting for SF lol. 

[David Vaughn]

Thanks David, good info and points.

Football's always been a team game, and having the offense, defense and special teams play in sync in some ways matters. One of my football message board friends has a longstanding antipathy towards full out "spread" type offenses because of their typical impact on defenses, and we've seen that play out with Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma then USC. I saw Shanahan's comments later about Wilks not being a good fit, and as the HC that's certainly something he's got more detailed thoughts on including what you mentioned, and within his charge to set the direction.

Hope y'all get back, and I hope it's vs the Bengals this time - though I wouldn't be rooting for SF lol.

Paul,

My preseason Super Bowl prediction was the 49ers versus the Bengals. I didn't expect Burrow to get injured, which killed their chances of a playoff run. I would have been rooting for the red and gold though

All good though...I have no hate towards fans of other teams (well, maybe a little for Cowboy's fans ). I just hope we get great games to watch. While I hated the result of Sunday's game, it's going to go down as one of the best Super Bowl games ever. Sadly, the 49ers took three different leads in the game and the Chiefs were able to come back each time. Funny thing is, I read a stat that since 2018, the Chiefs have been the luckiest team in the playoffs (they used a formula to determine what constituted luck) For example, the ball hit the ground 7 times in the game Sunday and the Chiefs recovered 6 of the 7 fumbles. Talk about luck!

[David Vaughn]

From NinersNation.com:

Was firing Steve Wilks the right choice for the 49ers?

The timing is certainly interesting, as Wilks was coming off a Super Bowl performance where his defense had their best outing in the playoffs, effectively shutting down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for a good portion of the game.

However, Wilks was overruled in the final minutes of the game when head coach Kyle Shanahan called a timeout on defense after seeing a look, raising questions about the disconnect in philosophy that had been brewing over the course of the season.
Now, the 49ers' defense wasn’t bad by any means in 2023, but it’s safe to say they experienced some regression, despite courting their entire core of elite players.

On the season, they dropped from the league’s best defense in terms of yards allowed in 2022 to the eight-best in 2023.

Looking at the expected points added (EPA) per play, the 49ers, who were first in 2022, also faced a drop, going to No. 12 this season.

More importantly, Wilks’s unit couldn’t get off the field, ranking 24th in third down conversion rate allowed, which was an issue that popped up in the Super Bowl over Kansas City’s final three drives, where the Chiefs converted on five of their seven chances.

However, this move stems far beyond the numbers and the Super Bowl performance over the first 3.5 quarters.
There was a clear disconnect between Wilks and his players, as well as between him and Shanahan.

The first clear sign came when Shanahan publicly outed Wilks for his inexcusable Cover-0 call against the Minnesota Vikings which ultimately was an influential mistake in that game.

Later on, amid struggles at the bye week, Wilks was asked to leave the booth to coach from the sidelines, despite expressing a preference for working from upstairs when he was hired.

Then, from Weeks 13-17, the defense really began to take some steps in the wrong direction, ranking 23rd in EPA/play, while the team’s run defense ranked 26th in EPA/play.

The struggles were amplified in the playoffs, as the 49ers got off to slow starts in both of their first two games before making the necessary adjustments in comeback victories over the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
Now, there was still a good amount of progress with Wilks’s unit, as the 49ers were a top-five unit in takeaways per game, while players like Deommodore Lenoir, Ambry Thomas, and Ji’Ayir Brown took steps forward to becoming key pieces on the defense.

But, at the end of the day, there was too much of a disconnect between the front seven and the secondary that led to too many issues for such a talented unit.

Even if the 49ers had won the Super Bowl, it felt that a Wilks firing was inevitable, as San Francisco has been an organization that has cut their losses at the right moment, rather than delaying those issues.

This wasn’t a decision that was made to call out a scapegoat; instead, this was a move that had been brewing over the entire second half of the season, and ultimately the way San Francisco had to go for better results in 2024.

Overall, this is a move that still reflects on Kyle Shanahan, who tasked the wrong man for the job, especially when considering the 49ers’ desired scheme and the style that Wilks has been accustomed to at his previous stops.
Now, after it felt that Shanahan had to take a more hands-on approach this season on the defensive end, he’ll hope to erase those issues by nailing his next hire at defensive coordinator.