Signs and Portents: Disney Announces Huge Change for Australia

[SRW1000]

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 will be the last DVD and Blu-ray title for the Australian market.

This decision applies to Fox movies as well.

Full article:  Disney to stop DVDs, Blu-ray in Australia | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site

So, will we see Europe and America follow suit?  It's no secret that movie studios want to push streaming, or that physical media sales have been declining for years.

Consider it a warning.  It may be time to stock up on titles you know you're going to want to add to your library while you still have a chance.

[Paul Heroy]

Damn. The article doesn't reference 4K but I'll assume that's just an extension of BD as I doubt 4K outsells either of the other formats. Haven't seen latest numbers but year old numbers are that 50% of the market never even made it past freaking DVDs. DVD is till the top selling physical media for movies. 

I've been hedging my bets for the last few years and redeeming all my digital codes for physical purchases b/c it was clear this is the way the overall market would go. Maybe 4K holds out for a while as a laser disc like niche? I don't know, but I think there are already releases that go straight to streaming, almost like the small movies that would go "straight to video" without a theatrical release. 

But silver lining, maybe this will grease the rails at least a bit to up the audio expectations to a similar level as video?

[SRW1000]

This is the most recent data I could find:


The numbers vary each week, but plain old DVD is still the monster seller.

I tried to find the 2023 YTD or 2022 percentage breakdown, but no luck.

[Paul Heroy]

I saw some data from 2022 Q1 and it was pretty close to what you have there. 13.4% UHD.

It's flabbergasting to me that a significant number or majority of TVs sold in the last few years (well, around 55% last year) are 4K. A Hub study reports that almost 2/3s of American households have a 4K TV. Yet DVD still has the overwhelming lead in physical media sales. Since virtually all 4K sets are "smart" TVs that can stream content with no external device, apparently most people just don't see a need for anything else. (And sadly I bet that applies to the audio side for many, too.)

[Craig Peer]

All the streaming services are losing money. The smaller boutique brands will always put out movies on disc. I'd be willing to bet that Disney will not abandon the larger markets buying a billion dollars + worth of movies on disc.

[David Vaughn]

As soon as the physical media is gone, watch how quickly the streaming services jack up the pricing. Also, there are rumors that Disney is speaking with Apple on a buyout of their entertainment division. This would not be good for consumers. 

[bmoney]

Yeah streaming is tanking 

[Craig Peer]

Yeah streaming is tanking

That's because they are spending billions to create any old content to fill airtime. None of which I have any interest in watching. And most of which is mediocre anyway. Honestly, at this point, if I add 10 great new movies to my collection a year, and buy 20 favorite older movies remastered on 4K a year, that's all I need. We've bought a camper van and plan on spending more time camping and less time watching movies or TV. You know damn well someone will release movies on disc. 

[Craig Peer]

Besides, just because Disney isn't selling physical media in Australia doesn't mean Sony etc. won't.

[Paul Heroy]

At this point I'm wondering if Laserdisk will be revived for nostalgia and other purposes. If cassette tapes can do that.. nothing would surprise me. 

[SRW1000]

All the streaming services are losing money. The smaller boutique brands will always put out movies on disc. I'd be willing to bet that Disney will not abandon the larger markets buying a billion dollars + worth of movies on disc.

I believe Netflix is actually making money.  In conjunction with that, only a tiny fraction of their content actually makes it onto disc.  So, there is a model out there for being a successful content-producing company that has almost zero interest in putting their content on disc.

What I couldn't find any information on is what kinds of margins physical media is bringing in.  Those billions of dollars in sales may not amount to much if margins are low, which could make them an attractive target for cost cutting.  Maybe that determined the fate of Disney's discs?

I did manage to find last year's sale numbers compared to 2021:

Signs and Portents: Disney Announces Huge Change for Australia

And there is a nice little note of hope in the report:  "The surge in theatrical new releases in the first three quarters also benefited premium physical formats, with spending on 4K UHD Blu-ray titles ending the year with 20 percent growth. The most in-demand 4K UHD titles of 2022 reflect many of the year’s biggest titles overall, including The Batman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick."

Here's a link for anyone interested:  DEG Year-End 2022 Digital Media Entertainment Report - DEG (degonline.org)

I do hope that you're right and that we'll see Blu-rays coming out for decades to come, but I'm not counting on it.

Scott

[SRW1000]

One more quick article:  As Netflix Shutters its Disc Rental Business, the DVD and Blu-ray Disc Industry Still Generates $1.34 Billion Annually in the US

Take-aways:

• U.S. DVD and Blu-Ray Disc sales of 94 million units created $1.34 billion in sales for the 12 months ending in March 2023
• 26% of US households bought at least one disc in the prior six months, about the same as last year
• Much like we've seen with LPs, collectors editions are growth areas, if only fractional
• The 71% of disc sales are still just plain old DVD

Those of us that frequent this forum are clearly outliers, which we kind of knew.

Scott

[bmoney]

_{Netflix is obviously feeling thr crunch as well since they are cracking down on password sharing.} 

[Craig Peer]

I believe Netflix is actually making money.  In conjunction with that, only a tiny fraction of their content actually makes it onto disc.  So, there is a model out there for being a successful content-producing company that has almost zero interest in putting their content on disc.

What I couldn't find any information on is what kinds of margins physical media is bringing in.  Those billions of dollars in sales may not amount to much if margins are low, which could make them an attractive target for cost cutting.  Maybe that determined the fate of Disney's discs?

I did manage to find last year's sale numbers compared to 2021:

Signs and Portents: Disney Announces Huge Change for Australia

And there is a nice little note of hope in the report:  "The surge in theatrical new releases in the first three quarters also benefited premium physical formats, with spending on 4K UHD Blu-ray titles ending the year with 20 percent growth. The most in-demand 4K UHD titles of 2022 reflect many of the year’s biggest titles overall, including The Batman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Jurassic World: Dominion, Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick."

Here's a link for anyone interested:  DEG Year-End 2022 Digital Media Entertainment Report - DEG (degonline.org)

I do hope that you're right and that we'll see Blu-rays coming out for decades to come, but I'm not counting on it.

Scott

Since I watching almost exclusively theatrical movie releases and virtually zero shows, if they don't release it on disc, I'm probably not interested in watching it to begin with. Netflix might not be losing money but it isn't making much either - Netflix falls as benefits from password-sharing crackdown to take time | Reuters

[TRainH2O]

As time goes on, I am becoming much less of a collector of movie titles. Unless it's something truly amazing, I rent and return.

If we're heading to streaming only, I'll have a lot more time to do what interests me the most.